Summary :
The GDPNOW read of the economy, the last before the government’s official estimate of GDP is released on Thursday, has private inventories as the biggest downward contributor to second quarter GDP, taking 2.3 percentage points off GDP. The history of GDPNOW shows that it tends to be a little too optimistic about economic growth. So with GDPNOW still in negative territory after the final reading, it’s a good bet the official measure of economic growth will also show a contraction. Two straight quarters of economic contraction is one popular definition of a recession, although many economists say that is too simplistic.
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