Summary :
Rather, the NBER defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”
But the bureau doesn’t even use GDP as a major factor in its thinking, and it declared a recession in 2001 without there being consecutive declines.
And get ready for a surprise again this time: There are virtually no major Wall Street economists who expect the NBER to say the U.S. economy was in recession during the first half of 2022.
Like his cohorts on the Street, Zandi said the bustling jobs market — which even with 457,000 jobs a month added this year is still not back to pre-Covid levels — is the primary reason the NBER won’t declare a recession.
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